近日，南京林业大学盛济川团队揭示了全球水安全受到不平等加剧的威胁。该研究于2026年1月20日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

全球水资源危机本质由不平等驱动，然而多数预测模型忽视公平性作为关键因果要素，导致问题误判与解决方案失效。

研究组构建基于机器学习的全球水资源使用预测模型，模拟不同共享社会经济路径所代表的发展轨迹下未来水资源使用与短缺状况。依托数十年来人类适应行为与资源利用的历史数据，该模型预测到2050年，在高度挑战性的分裂情景下，全球将有65亿人——相当于总人口的65.5%——面临严重水资源短缺。至2100年，这一数字预计将上升至80亿（约占全球人口63%），远超既往多数预测值。

分析表明，高度不平等的发展路径会直接加剧水资源短缺风险。值得注意的是，技术驱动型路径虽能提升整体用水效率，却会同时加剧社会与空间不平等。这些发现强调必须超越单纯技术解决方案，转向综合公平的水资源管理，证明更大程度的社会公正与更稳固的水安全保障具有不可分割的内在联系。

附：英文原文

Title: Global water security threatened by rising inequality

Author: Sheng, Jichuan, Cheng, Qian, Yang, Hongqiang

Issue&Volume: 2026-01-20

Abstract: The global water-scarcity crisis is fundamentally driven by inequality, yet most forecasts overlook equity as a causal factor, leading to misdiagnosed problems and ineffective solutions. Here we develop a machine-learning-based global water-use forecasting model to project future water use and scarcity under distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways representing alternative development trajectories. Drawing on decades of historical data on human adaptation and resource use, the model predicts that by 2050, 6.5 billion people—equivalent to 65.5% of the global population—will face severe water scarcity under a high-challenge fragmentation scenario. By 2100, this figure is projected to rise to 8.0 billion, or 63% of the global population, far exceeding most previous estimates. Our analysis shows that a high inequality pathway directly amplifies water-scarcity risk. Critically, a technology-driven pathway improves aggregate water-use efficiency but concurrently deepens social and spatial inequalities. These findings underscore the need to move beyond purely technological fixes towards integrated, equitable water management, demonstrating that greater justice is inseparable from greater water security.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01905-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01905-y