近日，澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（CSIRO）Éva E. Plagányi团队揭示了复合气候事件威胁着热带半封闭的海洋生态系统。该研究于2026年6月11日发表在《科学》杂志上。

人为海洋变暖会影响生态系统功能，但不一定是调控热带海洋的主要气候驱动因素。 人们对热带半封闭海洋生态系统的了解甚少，这类生态系统地理特征独特，并受到全球变暖、气旋、季风、淡水涌入以及大规模海平面和环流变化等多重影响的复合作用。

研究组统一了对这些海-气-生物大尺度综合系统的气候风险认知，结果表明：复合气候事件使本地物种暴露于更大、更持久的波动之中，导致空间格局重组以及持续水文连通性的缺失。研究组将这些系统中物种丰度的变化归因于极端温度、暴露程度、浊度与水文连通性之间复杂而累积的组合效应。研究组描述了此类由气候驱动的物理与生物状态转变在澳大利亚北部热带海洋生态系统中的证据，并指出了对其他系统的启示意义。

附：英文原文

Title: Compound climate events threaten tropical semi-enclosed marine ecosystems

Author: éva E. Plagányi, Laura K. Blamey, Rob Kenyon, Stephanie Brodie, Roy Aijun Deng, Denham Parker, Richard D. Pillans, Nicole E. Murphy, Margaret Miller, Amelia A. Desbiens, Sean Pascoe, André E. Punt

Issue&Volume: 2026-06-11

Abstract: Anthropogenic ocean warming affects ecosystem functioning but is not necessarily the primary climate driver regulating tropical seas. Tropical semi-enclosed marine ecosystems are poorly understood, geographically distinct, and influenced by compounding impacts from global warming, cyclones, monsoons, freshwater influx, and massive sea-level and circulation variability. We unify climate risk understanding of these large-scale integrated ocean-atmosphere-biological systems, showing that compound climate events expose resident species to larger, prolonged fluctuations, causing reconfigured spatial patterns and lack of sustained hydrological connectivity. We attribute changes in species’ abundance in these systems to complex and cumulative combinations of extreme temperatures, exposure, turbidity, and hydrologic connections. We describe evidence of such climate-induced physical and biological regime shifts in tropical marine ecosystems in northern Australia and identify implications for other systems.

DOI: adv0367

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adv0367